Nifty Historical Trend
According to the Nifty 50 index’s most recent 10-year review, the index has seen positive price seasonality in April. According to a study by JM Financial, the index has produced an average return of 2.4% and a median return of 1.3%, closing in the green seven times in the last 10 instances.
The Indian benchmark index has shown a robust trend in April, with the exception of 2015, 2021, and 2022. The largest returns, about 5%, occurred in 2018 and 2020 (the years following the COVID recovery).
With the index growing in eight of the previous ten years, the overall market has shown an even more robust trend in April.With an average outperformance of 1.6%, the Nifty Midcap index has also outperformed the Nifty on nine separate occasions.
According to a JM Financial research, the Nifty Midcap index also had an average return of 4% and a median return of 4.3% in April.
Sectoral Trend
With an average return of 7%, 4.9%, 4.6%, and 3.6%, respectively, the Metals, Auto, Energy, and CPSE indices have all finished in the green eight times. With an average return of 3.4% and 2%, respectively, the banks and FMCG indexes have each closed in the green seven times.
However, with an average return of -1%, the technology index has finished lower on seven occasions.
Stock Market Outlook
The bullish trend that was evident in March is anticipated to continue, according to a number of analysts. After declining for five months in a row, the index has recovered more than 6% this month, ending the worst losing run since 1996.
According to Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, the market’s resilience in the face of Trump’s threats of reciprocal tariffs stems from FIIs’ repeated purchases and the confidence this has given to bulls.
Echoing bullish views on the Indian market, Chokkalingam G, Founder, Equinomics Research, said the worst is over and the first quarter of FY26 will be very robust.
Chokkalingam thinks that this trend would be fueled by valuations that are becoming more attractive, particularly in the small-cap and mid-cap sectors. Investors are bottom fishing as a result of the 30–40% decline in several companies, which has allayed concerns over value.
Additionally, the improvement in Q3 economic growth is contributing to the bullish emotions. According to a recent report by Morgan Stanley, by 2028, the Indian economy would rank third globally. In 2026, it predicted that the Indian GDP would have grown from $3.5 trillion to $4.7 trillion.
According to him, these elements will also contribute to the significant return of FPIs. For this month, they have become net purchasers of Indian stocks in the cash section. FPIs have bought ₹6,367 crore worth of Indian stocks as of March 27.
“The bears are currently on the defensive, and this market structure may continue unless Trump makes a very negative announcement,” Vijaykumar continued, highlighting the potential for significant gains in April.
Disclaimer: The sole intention of this story is education. The opinions and suggestions expressed above are not those of Mint; rather, they are those of specific analysts or broking firms. Before making any financial decisions, we encourage investors to consult with qualified professionals.
